I hope you’re having a fantastic summer and finding time to relax, recharge, and enjoy what matters most.
The biggest news in personal finance last month? A new tax bill. It’s making waves and could have a real impact on your finances. If you’d like a detailed breakdown of what changed, click here.
Tax laws affect everyone differently, so if you’re wondering what it means for you, let’s connect. A little planning now could make a big difference later.
In this month’s newsletter I’ve pulled together a few insights from July, covering the markets, real estate, and how inflation is affecting everything from college costs to beef prices.
Thanks for reading.
Investing / Stock Market
- ⛷️ The Danger of a Market Melt Up – The New York Times recently highlighted concerns about U.S. stock market valuations. While market forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, the article raised valid points. One example (emphasis mine):
- “One sign that the ‘market is a little out over its skis,’ as Bespoke Investment Group put it…‘For stocks that are losing money, generally speaking, the bigger the losses the better the returns.'”
- August Down? – Another reason why this month’s market performance may not be positive: a quirky bit of market history (emphasis mine):
- “August can be a rough month, but it is very weak in a post-election year of a second term president. Never higher going back to Eisenhower.” — Ryan Detrick, Carson Group.
- For more on August’s bad historical performance, but why you should remain optimistic longer term, click here.
- ＄ Nvidia > Apple – “Recently, Nvidia $NVDA (brown) surpassed $4 trillion in market capitalization [value] and also accounted for over 8% of the S&P 500. The last time a stock was over 8% of the S&P 500 was 56 years ago, IBM (green) in 1969.” — Jim Bianco, Bianco Research.
- 📱 Bay Area Company Values vs. India + Japan + Germany – It’s not the most readable chart, but what it shows is amazing:
- “The total value of all public companies in the tiny Bay Area (population 8M) is greater than India, Japan and Germany (population: ~1680M) combined.
- There’s a reason why it’s called the global hub of innovation.” — Debarghya Das, Menlo Ventures
- 📊 Performance After +25% in 3 Months – On the optimistic side, we just wrapped up a great 3-month rally within the S&P 500, which was up more than 25%. It turns out that this is a very optimistic sign (emphasis mine).
- “Only 5 other times in history has this happened and continued strength was perfectly normal. Up another 22% a year later on average and never lower.” — Ryan Detrick, Carson Group.
Real Estate
- 🏠 Home Prices at All-Time Highs – Home prices are still setting records, with the median nationwide price hitting ~$435k.
- Inventory Up – As of June 2025 there were 1.42M homes for sale. This is up quite a bit compared to June, 2024 (1.3M) and June, 2023 (1.0M).
- ⬇️ More Price Cuts – As inventory has risen, we’re also seeing the percentage of homes with price cuts increase.
- Nationwide, the price-cut rate is 26% (above the longer term average of 21%). Florida stands out, as 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are there.
- In San Mateo County, ~19% of properties have decreased their price, above the long-term average of 15%:
- 🚚 Where People Move – A great look at where people tend to move (Florida, or the west in general) or stay put (Midwest, South):
Expenses / Inflation
- College Costs vs. Parental Income – How much parents pay for college as income increases:
- College Cost Inflation – As for the price of college:
- “Over the last 40 years, College Tuition and Fees in the US have increased by over 700% (8x) while overall Consumer Prices (US CPI) are up 199% (3x)” — Charlie Bilello, Creative Planning.
- 🏥 Expenses Over Time – This chart shows the changes in the proportion of different spending categories over the past 96 years.
- From Ben Carlson, “The good news is that spending on necessities such as food and clothing/shoes has dropped considerably over time as a percentage of household budgets. The bad news is that healthcare costs have completely eaten up all of those relative gains.”
- Beef Prices – Are likely to stay high for years, according to a new government report. As of July 1, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to 94.2 million—the lowest mid-year level since records began in 1973.
- Years of drought and high feed costs forced ranchers to cut herd sizes. And even with improved conditions and record-high cattle prices this year, ranchers aren’t yet rebuilding, as too few female cattle are being kept for breeding.
- Experts say the beef shortage will persist, with supplies unlikely to recover before 2028 or 2029.
Quote of the Month
“Some people are so poor all they have is money.”
– Bob Marley
I hope you found these interesting.
As always, please reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.