I hope you’re having a fantastic summer and finding time to relax, recharge, and enjoy what matters most.

The biggest news in personal finance last month? A new tax bill. It’s making waves and could have a real impact on your finances. If you’d like a detailed breakdown of what changed, click here.

Tax laws affect everyone differently, so if you’re wondering what it means for you, let’s connect. A little planning now could make a big difference later.

In this month’s newsletter I’ve pulled together a few insights from July, covering the markets, real estate, and how inflation is affecting everything from college costs to beef prices.

Thanks for reading.

• ⛷️ The Danger of a Market Melt Up – The New York Times recently highlighted concerns about U.S. stock market valuations. While market forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, the article raised valid points. One example (emphasis mine):

• August Down? – Another reason why this month’s market performance may not be positive: a quirky bit of market history (emphasis mine):

• ＄ Nvidia > Apple – “Recently, Nvidia $NVDA (brown) surpassed $4 trillion in market capitalization [value] and also accounted for over 8% of the S&P 500. The last time a stock was over 8% of the S&P 500 was 56 years ago, IBM (green) in 1969.” — Jim Bianco, Bianco Research.

• 📱 Bay Area Company Values vs. India + Japan + Germany – It’s not the most readable chart, but what it shows is amazing:

• 📊 Performance After +25% in 3 Months – On the optimistic side, we just wrapped up a great 3-month rally within the S&P 500, which was up more than 25%. It turns out that this is a very optimistic sign (emphasis mine).

• 🏠 Home Prices at All-Time Highs – Home prices are still setting records, with the median nationwide price hitting ~$435k.

• Inventory Up – As of June 2025 there were 1.42M homes for sale. This is up quite a bit compared to June, 2024 (1.3M) and June, 2023 (1.0M). 

• ⬇️ More Price Cuts – As inventory has risen, we’re also seeing the percentage of homes with price cuts increase.

• 🚚 Where People Move – A great look at where people tend to move (Florida, or the west in general) or stay put (Midwest, South):

Expenses / Inflation

• College Costs vs. Parental Income – How much parents pay for college as income increases:

• College Cost Inflation – As for the price of college:

• 🏥 Expenses Over Time – This chart shows the changes in the proportion of different spending categories over the past 96 years.

• Beef Prices – Are likely to stay high for years, according to a new government report. As of July 1, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to 94.2 million—the lowest mid-year level since records began in 1973.

Quote of the Month

“Some people are so poor all they have is money.”

– Bob Marley

As always, please reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.

U.S. and global stocks rallied in Q2, with the S&P 500 up 10.9% and international stocks (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.) rising 12.0%.

Investors leaned into tech and AI optimism, even as consumers grew more cautious and economic uncertainty lingered.

Let’s start at home. The S&P 500 ended June back at its February highs, thanks mostly to tech stocks that can seemingly do no wrong.

• Tech led the pack with a stunning 22.9% return for the quarter.

• Other winners included Industrials (+12.9%) and Communication Services (+12.8%).

• On the flip side, Energy (-8.5%) and Health Care (-7.2%) performed poorly.

What’s notable is that this rally wasn’t broad-based: Most of the gains came from a small group of very large companies. 

Despite the cheer, not everyone is celebrating. Consumer sentiment is slumping. The University of Michigan’s Index dropped nearly 30% in the first four months of the year, a historically sharp decline. 

In short: the stock market seems to believe in a brighter tomorrow. The average consumer? Not so much.

• Some officials want to hold tight.

• Others are calling for rate cuts—most likely to happen in September.

• Inflation projections are inching up, and growth projections are ticking down.

• U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: +1.2% in Q2

• High-yield bonds: +3.5%

• Municipals: slightly negative (-0.1%)

• Europe: Spain, Germany, France, and Italy all posted double-digit gains. The European Central Bank cut rates again, trying to thread the needle between slowing inflation and fragile growth.

• China: Still stuck in the mud. Real estate woes and trade tensions with the U.S. continue to weigh down sentiment. Chinese markets rose just 3.5%.

• Emerging Markets: This is where the fireworks were. Korea +34.5%. Taiwan +23.9%. Latin America posted strong gains too—Argentina, Mexico, Brazil all up double digits. A weaker dollar helped.

Where do we go from here?

There’s plenty to feel good about. For example, company earnings are holding up well. According to Factset, a higher proportion of S&P 500 companies issued positive earnings per share guidance for Q2 than average, suggesting resilience. 

Inflation, while still sticky, is lower than last year. Central banks are starting to blink.

But potential cracks remain:

• Consumer Confidence is fragile.

• Growth is slowing.

• Valuations are high. 

Sources: Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns over one year are annualized

With June behind us, the second quarter is officially in the books.

It began on shaky ground, as tariff announcements on Liberation Day rattled markets early on. But once those plans were, let’s say, “reworked,” the quarter ended with strong gains across the board:

• U.S. Stocks: +10.9%

• International Stocks: +12.1%

• U.S. Bonds: +1.2%

• International Bonds: +2.1%

Below, you’ll find a few data points and observations from the past month—touching on markets, real estate, and the intersection of the job and AI.

Thanks for reading.

• 🙌 Strong Q2 Returns are Encouraging – “The S&P 500 gained more than 10% in Q2. What happens historically after 10% quarterly gains?

• 💸 Low Dividend Yields – “The S&P 500’s Dividend Yield has moved down to 1.25%, the lowest since 2000.” — Charlie Bilello

• 🌎 Mixed IPO Market – “93 U.S. companies have priced offerings this year, up 45% from the same time last year.”

• 🔥 Earnings Growth – “The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks [Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla] delivered 28% year-over-year earnings growth,” far outpacing the other companies. — Michael Cembalest

• 📊 Mag 7 Performance – Despite the strong earnings growth from these companies, their returns this year are all over the place:

• 💲Savings Rates are Moving Up – One of those most important pieces to anyone’s financial plan is how much they save.

• 🏠 Not Many First-Time Home Buyers – “With mortgage rates close to 7% and home prices at all-time highs, the share of first-time home buyers as a share of all houses sold has declined from 50% in 2010 to only 24% today.” — Torsten Slok

• Lots of Homes For Sale – “There are now over 500k new homes for sale in the US, the most since November 2007.”

• 👨‍💼 Not Many Homes Selling (in California) – California had ~25k sales in April, down 20% from the average (and 40% below the pandemic peak).

Jobs / AI

• 💸 Layoffs Increasing – So far this year, ~700k people have been laid off, an 80% increase from the same period last year.

• Tech Jobs are Hard to Find – “…an absolutely brutal job market for the US tech industry, which is back to losing jobs year-on-year after several months of tepid positive growth.” — Joey Politano

• A few quotes about AI and the job market:

• • • “About one in five S&P 500 companies have fewer employees today in both offices and the field than a decade ago.” — WSJ
    • “​​As we roll out more Generative AI and agents, it should change the way our work is done. It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce.” — Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon
    • “What the hyperscalers [Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc.] are doing, I would describe…I know we’re only 25 years into the century…but this is the bet of the century. That you can spend this much on AI infrastructure, depress your cash flow…and wait for the ultimate payoff” — Michael Cembalest, Chair of Market and Investment Strategy, JP Morgan Chase

• Google vs. ChatGPT – Impressive adoption of ChatGPT vs. Google:

Quote of the Month

“There are times when chasing the things money can buy, one loses sight of the things which money can’t buy and are usually free.”

– John Paul Rathbone

As always, please reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.

I hope you’re doing well and enjoying the start of Summer.

Below are a few interesting data points from the past month related to the stock market, real estate, and a reminder from The Millionaire Next Door. Hope you enjoy.

• 🌎 Country Stock Returns – Global stock market diversification is proving useful.

• May > 5%? – A fun stat to consider: “When the S&P 500 gains more than 5% in May (as it did this year) the next 12 months have never been lower and gained nearly 20% on average.”

• ⬇️ US Company Earnings May Decline – With the average tariff rate up from 2-3% a few years ago to ~18% today, analysts are making downward revisions to future earnings.

• 💲Profit Margins by Sector – An interesting look at how different sectors compare. Tech is the clear leader.

• 🛒 Walmart – This one surprised me. On a price-to-earnings basis, Walmart is more expensive than Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta.

• 📊 More Sellers Than Buyers – Redfin reports that home sellers outnumber buyers:

• ⚖️ Buyer’s Markets – From the same Redfin report, these are the top buyer’s markets

• 🏠 Housing Inventory Changes by State – The number of homes for sale across the U.S. is quite a bit higher than last year. As more supply comes online, you would think that would be beneficial to buyers.

• Housing Supply – An alternative view of the increasing housing supply nationwide:

• 🇺🇸 It’s Taking Longer to Buy A Home – The headline says it all: The median age of first-time home buyers has increased from 30 in 2008 to 38 today.

Life

• 💸 Reminders from The Millionaire Next Door – If you haven’t read this book I highly recommend it.

Quote of the Month

“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”

– Herbert A. Simon

As always, please reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.

With the historic amount of volatility in April, many are happy that month is behind us. A quick summary of the investment activity:

• The S&P 500 fell 10.6% over two days.

• It soon rebounded 9.5% — the third-best single day on record (!).

• U.S. stocks ended April down around ~1%. Quite the round trip.

On the trade front, tariffs are apparently postponed until July 8th. Right now, the market seems optimistic that those will not fully go into effect. I don’t see Trump walking away completely, but it feels like everyone is hoping that they’ll be minimized from the current plan. Perhaps we’re in a brief respite from the tariff-induced madness we just experienced, or perhaps the stock market is right, and the worst is behind us. Only time will tell.

It’s still early days in the China-US trade war, but the early data is worrying:

• China’s export orders have declined, and container ship bookings to the U.S. have dropped sharply.

• 👩‍🍼 Quick Tip: China produces a very large share of strollers, cribs, and toys sold in the America. If you or someone you know has a baby on the way, it’s smart to stock up on these essentials sooner rather than later.

• Businesses are pulling back on investment.

• Consumers are growing  anxious about unemployment, inflation, and general sentiment is low.

We’re also seeing an interesting trend with international investors: Foreign investors are on a “buyers’ strike” for U.S. assets, according to Deutsche Bank. This is showing up in a) the decline of the dollar, b) a sharp drop in overseas purchases of U.S. investments, and c) reduced international travel (at least from Europe) to the America. International attitudes toward the U.S. has declined, which is now showing up in the data.

As for interest rates, betting markets are pricing in two interest rate cuts this year. But it may be a tricky situation — tariffs are inflationary, so cutting rates in an inflationary environment is not the typical playbook. Plus, as we learned during the pandemic, rate cuts can’t fix broken supply chains, and may even add to inflation when goods are scarce.

In short: we’re a long way from calm waters. The stock market remains a strong early indicator of recovery, but right now, unpredictability is the only constant. To that point, around 40 companies have withdrawn or lowered their forward guidance for the year, citing economic uncertainty. Examples include General Motors, JetBlue, Kraft Heinz, and Logitech.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns about how your financial plan is being affected or how your portfolio is allocated.

Below I’ve summarized a few interesting data points from from the past month related to the summary above.

• 🫩 Nearly Flat – With all the volatility in April, the S&P 500 ended down 1%.

• 🌎 Country Returns – Going back to the start of 2025, the US is underperforming the international markets.

• 📈 Biggest 1-Day Gains – On April 9th the S&P 500 went up 9.5%.

• 🏠 Housing Inventory Up – The number of homes for sale across the U.S. is quite a bit higher than in recent years.

• 🇺🇸 State by State Inventory Growth – California in particular has seen a big increase in homes for sale.

• 🚢 GDP Down 0.3% in Q1 – GDP shrank 0.3% in the first quarter — the first drop in three years.

• 🛫 Europeans Traveling to America Less – Not a great sign for our tourism industry.

• 💵 US Dollar Down – The value of the dollar has declined ~8% since the start of this year.

• 👨‍💼 Job Worries – Many are concerned about losing their job. You have to go back to 2008 to see this level of fear.

• 💸 State Tax Changes since 2000 – An interesting look at how state taxes have changed since 2000. California has moved up quite a bit.

Quote of the Month

“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down.”

– Peter Lynch

As always, please reach out if you have any questions or would like to connect.